04-15-2014 ES review

ES open drive up from B/B into R1, reversed and tested range low at 1810. Stronger than expected buying came in as big seller disappeared at B/B (26.50-29.50)

Settlement at highs, VPOC near highs. Settlement busted out higher.

Tomorrow

The strong close & lack of re-entry of the big seller at 26.50-29.50 is showing that the big seller in the market is most likely gone. Price closed inside R1 (36.75-41.25), so it isn’t expected to hold tomorrow.

Above settlement, looking for a strong short cover. No strong resistance for a while

04-14-2014 ES Review

ESM4-CME  2000 Trades  #6 41743.845

ES opening a bit higher from premarket. At the open, failure at o/n highs and sells off on light activity.

Price reversed at 15.75 poc. Held above 19.25 poc, and lifted to re-test 26-29.50 b/b zone. When 26-29.50 held, and ES peeks to new highs when TF+NQ not at highs && cumulative delta diverging strongly to the down side is cause to size up on a short.

  1. Cumulative Delta – directional. +/- 10K
  2. NQ + TF correlation – execution + confirming strength (for breakouts)
  3. Big Tape + DOM – see big player activity and watching DOM flow
  4. Price structure – if uptrend, want all support hold. If downtrend, want all resistance hold.
  5. Volume spikes

Tomorrow

Inside day and swift rejection from 1810. Settlement + close at 24 handle. Profile has LV at lows. Rangebound conditions starting to build.

1819, 1824 as temporary short-term bias points

26.50-29.50 again b/b held on the short side

07.25 – 10.50 – LVN support. Hold below 10 even is bad

04-09-2014

ESM4-CME  1500 Trades  #6 41738.845

In the morning big seller defending o/n high. Sells off and hits 1846 which was determined an important reference point.

Morning was very thin. Depth was <1000 predominantly. Sellers were very thin when hitting 46, and price spiked up 4-5ticks fast. After breaking IBH, sellers could traverse bids with small size also.

Prior to and after FOMC meeting minutes, buyers were hitting offers aggressively. Even though big sellers did come in, they didn’t get much volume to follow-through. In these situations, it’s a great idea to cover a portion of your position quickly instead of waiting to get stopped out.

Price hit 59.25 nvpoc, busted through it, then hit 1865 composite level and rotated around it for the rest of the day.

Settlement && VPOC at highs. VPOC at 1865.25.

Tomorrow

1864-1866 is again critical point on composite. We balanced into it going into the close. A gap open tomorrow has a higher likelyhood of working out. Lots of size coming in at that level.

04-08-2014 ES Review

ESM4-CME  1500 Trades  #6 41737.897

O/N was evenly distributed from 37-41. Big seller 42.25 in the morning. Held an offer and showed size. Lifted the offer, tick up once and then big seller came back in.

A reversal at 42.25 showed o/n sellers in control. Sold off to break o/n low and reversed at 30.75-32.75 S1. In S1, sellers got weaker hitting the bids, and demonstrated a great buying opportunity.

Buyers took control at S1, and if  you missed the entry at S1, the pullback to Y-L @ 34.50 was another area to enter. Buyers aggressively taking the offer up till 46.00 previous 30-m swing hi.

Sellers take control at 46 and move price down, but can’t sustain below IBH. Commence 2-way action.

Final short opportunity in the day when price pushes to new highs and fails at 69 hvn poc.

Overall

10pt o/n range
~18 handle RTH range

Settle @ vpoc in-range. Also, vpoc shift UP. The VPOC is at the LVN swing hi 1846. Lots of sellers entered at the close.

TMRW

Above 1846, looking for a retest of Friday’s settlement roughly ~61 even. Big resistance at 65 cvpoc. Below 46, holding strong to the sell-side

04-08-2014 ES Premarket Analysis

Yesterday

Settled @ VPOC with VPOC at lows of the day, just like the previous selloff on Friday. There are sellers that come in the morning and getting great fills, because VPOC is settling at the lows.

Important reference points

1865 composite bull/bear

1834 handle area as lower range composite POC (yesterday’s low also)

O/N Profile is evenly distributed. No strong volume cluster in the profile. So looking to join the momentum.

In the o/n 1838-1841 is shaping up to be the short-term bull/bear zone for the morning.

Looking for 1830.75 – 1832.75 to hold as first resistance

R2 at 1823-1825